ARUSHA, Tanzania — Sept. 16, 2026 — Trade among members of the East African Community and with external markets rose sharply in the second quarter of 2026, with total trade reaching $52.3 billion as stronger exports pushed the region into a $0.3 billion surplus, according to the EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin.
Total trade increased 37% from $38.2 billion in the second quarter of 2025. Exports rose 41.3% to $26.3 billion, while imports increased 32.9% to $26 billion.
The regional trade balance improved from a $945.3 million deficit recorded in the same period a year earlier.
African markets accounted for a growing share of EAC exports. Exports to African countries rose 44.3% to $7.2 billion, representing 27.5% of total regional exports.
Exports to the Southern African Development Community, or SADC, increased 50.8% to $5.1 billion, while exports to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, or COMESA, rose 48.3% to $3.1 billion.
Trade among EAC member states also expanded. Intra-EAC exports rose 33.2% to $3.2 billion. Their share of total EAC exports, however, declined to 12.1% from 12.8% a year earlier as exports to markets outside the bloc grew at a faster pace.
China remained the region’s largest individual export destination and source of imports. EAC exports to China nearly doubled to $10.7 billion from $5.7 billion a year earlier, driven largely by mineral commodities and other raw materials.
Imports from China rose to $7.1 billion from $4.7 billion.
The United Arab Emirates and South Africa were also among the region’s major export destinations. India, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Japan were among the leading sources of imports.
Minerals continued to dominate the region’s export earnings. Copper and precious metals accounted for 61.9% of total exports in the second quarter, up from 58.7% a year earlier.
Coffee, tea and spices remained important agricultural exports, while petroleum products were the largest import category. Machinery, transport equipment and industrial supplies also accounted for significant import volumes.
Inflation slows
Inflationary pressures eased across the quarter, with annual headline inflation in the EAC, measured by the EAC Harmonised Consumer Price Index, falling from 11.1% in April to 10.7% in May and 7.8% in June.
The June rate was down from 22.7% a year earlier. On a month-to-month basis, the regional price index fell 0.8% in June after rising 1.2% in May.
Core inflation, which excludes selected products with volatile prices, moved in the opposite direction, rising from 6.2% in April to 6.4% in May and 7% in June. The June rate was nevertheless substantially below the 19.3% recorded a year earlier.
Food inflation rose to 10.1% in June from 9.5% in May but remained well below the 37.5% recorded in June 2025.
Inflation in energy, fuel and utilities fell to 11.1% in June from 14.2% in May, although it remained above the 6.3% recorded a year earlier.
Among the Partner States covered by the EAC-HCPI, annual headline inflation in June was 13% in Rwanda and South Sudan, 8% in Burundi, 6.5% in Kenya, 4% in Tanzania and 3.7% in Uganda.
South Sudan’s inflation rate fell from 23.1% in May, while Rwanda’s remained unchanged at 13%.
For the 2025-26 fiscal year, regional annual average headline inflation fell to 14.2% from 23% in 2024-25.
The bulletin attributed the decline largely to lower inflation in South Sudan and Burundi, where annual average rates fell from 179.4% to 43.2% and from 33.3% to 18%, respectively.
Interest rates, credit
Interest rate movements varied across the region during the second quarter.
Tanzania recorded the largest decline in the 91-day Treasury bill rate, which fell 60 basis points to 3.6%. Kenya recorded the largest increase, with the rate rising 120 basis points to 8.7%. Uganda recorded the highest rate among the reporting Partner States at 10.2%.
Lending rates increased in Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda. Rwanda recorded the largest increase, rising 30 basis points to 14.4%.
Lending rates declined in Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan. Uganda’s rate fell from 18.9% to 16.9% but remained the highest among the reporting Partner States.
Deposit rates increased in Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda and declined in Kenya and Uganda. South Sudan’s deposit rate was unchanged.
South Sudan recorded the widest gap between lending and deposit rates at 15.6 percentage points, while Rwanda had the narrowest spread at 4.3 percentage points.
Credit expanded across several major economic sectors. Lending to wholesale and retail trade increased 29.1% year over year, followed by agriculture at 25.6% and construction at 22.9%.
Real estate lending grew 6.2%, while manufacturing lending increased 0.9%.
The household sector accounted for the largest amount of outstanding loans at $17.6 billion, followed by wholesale and retail trade at $11.6 billion.
Broad money supply, or M3, increased 15.3% year over year to $107.7 billion. Credit to the private sector rose 15% to $75.9 billion, while net foreign assets increased 19% to $25.4 billion.
Public-sector credit showed mixed trends. Net credit to central governments increased 7.5% year over year to $37.5 billion, while net credit to public nonfinancial corporations declined 3.1% to $650 million.
The figures are contained in the EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin covering April through June 2026.
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