IMF warns of weaker Cameroon outlook as oil output falls and fiscal pressures rise

YAOUNDE, Cameroon — Cameroon’s economic growth remained steady at 3.5% in 2025, but the outlook for 2026 is weakening as declining hydrocarbon production and constraints on electricity transmission weigh on the economy, the International Monetary Fund said.

An IMF staff team led by Christine Dieterich held discussions in Yaounde from Sept. 17 to 30 as part of the country’s 2026 Post-Financing Assessment. The team met with government officials, the central bank, civil society, private-sector representatives, banks and development partners.

“Cameroon’s economy grew 3.5 percent in 2025, repeating the performance of the previous year, but prospects are weakening for 2026,” Dieterich said in a statement released after the mission.

The IMF said the services sector remained resilient, but declining hydrocarbon production and delays in expanding electricity transmission capacity were expected to contribute to a slight slowdown this year.

Inflation had continued to ease, reaching an average of 2.6% through August, but the IMF expects price pressures to return as food inflation accelerates.

Fiscal deficit widens

The IMF said Cameroon’s fiscal position deteriorated in 2025, with the overall budget deficit increasing to 2.1% of GDP from 1.5% in 2024.

The fiscal position is expected to weaken further in 2026, partly because the international oil price shock has created significant fuel subsidy costs.

The Fund warned that Cameroon remains exposed to several downside risks, including international capital-market conditions, delays in implementing reforms and continuing security and climate-related challenges.

Cameroon’s debt sustainability analysis also remains at high overall risk of debt distress, according to the IMF.

The Fund said maintaining macroeconomic stability will require tighter fiscal policy, stronger domestic revenue mobilisation and greater access to concessional financing.

“These should be complemented by pro-growth reforms to strengthen governance around public spending, improve management of state-owned enterprises, and deepen the financial sector,” Dieterich said.

IMF urges structural reforms

The IMF’s assessment places particular emphasis on reforms intended to improve the management of public resources and state-owned enterprises while strengthening the financial sector.

The Fund said faster implementation of these reforms would be important for supporting economic growth while protecting the macroeconomic stability achieved in recent years.

The assessment comes as Cameroon continues to face challenges from weaker hydrocarbon production, infrastructure constraints and external economic shocks.

The IMF said its staff team held “constructive and open discussions” with Cameroonian authorities during the mission.

Cameroon’s 2026 Post-Financing Assessment is expected to be discussed by the IMF Executive Board in December 2026.

A Post-Financing Assessment is conducted for countries with outstanding IMF credit above specified thresholds that do not have an IMF-supported programme or staff-monitored programme. It examines the country’s economic policies, the consistency of its macroeconomic framework with medium-term viability and its capacity to repay the IMF.