Global Goods Trade Shows Resilience in First Quarter of 2026 Despite Middle East Conflict

GENEVA (XOL Africa) — Global merchandise trade exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2026, with strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related technologies helping to offset the early impact of the conflict in the Middle East, according to new data from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

World merchandise trade volume increased by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% compared with the same period in 2025, while trade in value terms rose 2% from the previous quarter and 11% year-on-year.

The WTO said the stronger-than-expected performance reflected a surge in trade of electronic components and other goods linked to AI investment, which outweighed disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

However, the full impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to become more visible in trade data for the second quarter of 2026, as many March shipments had already departed before the escalation of the conflict.

“The effects of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on world merchandise trade is expected to become visible primarily in data from April 2026 onward,” the WTO said.

The organisation’s latest trade outlook had forecast global merchandise trade volume growth of 1.9% for 2026 under its baseline scenario. WTO economists said continued AI-related investment could support global trade growth, while higher energy prices and transport disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict could create significant downside risks.

Middle East Trade Hit by Conflict

The Middle East recorded a sharp decline in trade activity during the first quarter as the conflict disrupted shipping routes and energy exports.

The region’s seasonally adjusted export volumes fell 9.7% year-on-year, while imports declined 11.9%.

WTO estimates showed that global crude oil imports from the Middle East fell by about 45% year-on-year in March, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports dropped 52% and fertilizer shipments declined 26%.

The WTO noted that trade statistics for the first quarter only captured part of the disruption because many shipments affected by the conflict had already left ports before the outbreak of hostilities.

Asia Drives AI-Related Trade Growth

Asia recorded the strongest trade performance among major regions, driven largely by demand for AI-enabling products.

The region’s exports increased 12.9% year-on-year, while imports rose 14.6% in the first quarter.

The WTO said much of the growth came from increased trade in AI-related goods circulating within the region, with major contributions from China, Singapore, the Republic of Korea, Thailand and Chinese Taipei.

North America also recorded export growth, with shipments rising 7% year-on-year. Imports, however, declined 10.7% compared with the first quarter of 2025, which had been boosted by companies bringing forward purchases ahead of expected tariff increases.

Europe’s export volumes fell 2.6% year-on-year, largely due to unusually high shipments of gold and pharmaceuticals to North America in early 2025, while imports increased slightly by 0.6%.

Other regions recorded weaker quarterly export performance, with South America growing 0.3%, Africa declining 2.5%, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region falling 7.4%.

AI Technologies Boost Product Trade

In value terms, office and telecommunications equipment recorded the strongest growth in the first quarter of 2026, increasing 44% year-on-year, driven by demand for AI-related technologies.

Other strong-performing categories included ores and minerals, which rose 27%, and machinery, which increased 9%.

Among major product categories, chemicals declined 6%, iron and steel dropped 5%, and fuels decreased 3%.

The WTO said prices for metals and minerals, excluding gold and silver, increased 32%, supporting higher trade values.

Africa Records Strong Export Growth

Africa recorded one of the highest increases in merchandise export values, with exports rising 14% year-on-year in the first quarter.

Growth was supported by exports of precious metals, gold, copper, fertilizers and ores, although cocoa and fuel exports declined.

African imports also increased by 15%, driven by stronger demand for vehicles, machinery and ships.

The WTO said exports from Africa, South America and CIS economies could rebound in the second quarter as petroleum-producing countries seek to compensate for reduced energy output from the Middle East.

Top Exporters Report Growth

All five leading global exporters recorded year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2026.

The Republic of Korea led with export growth of 38.4%, followed closely by Hong Kong, China, at 38.3%. The United States recorded growth of 15.2%, China 14.7%, and the European Union 9.2%.

Among the world’s top importers, only the United States recorded a decline, with imports falling 13.6%.

Other major import markets recorded increases, including Hong Kong, China (44.8%), the United Kingdom (28%), China (23%) and the European Union (11.4%).

The WTO said the outlook for global trade in the remainder of 2026 will depend largely on whether continued AI investment can outweigh the economic impact of the Middle East conflict and related energy and shipping disruptions.