Why diesel prices are rising as war disrupts global fuel supplies

LONDON, Sept. 21, 2026 (XOL Africa) — Diesel prices are rising sharply as disruptions to oil production, refining and shipping squeeze supplies of one of the world’s most widely used fuels, with Europe and Asia increasingly exposed to a shortage of refined products.

The International Energy Agency said diesel and gasoil prices in the United States had exceeded $200 a barrel in early September, 94% above pre-war levels. Prices in Europe and Asia have also risen sharply as the market for refined fuels has tightened much faster than the underlying crude market.

The immediate problem is not simply that crude oil has become more expensive. The bigger issue is that less diesel is reaching international markets.

Global oil production fell by 1.6mn barrels a day in August to 100.1mn barrels a day, according to the IEA, after more than 10mn barrels a day of Gulf production remained shut in amid heightened security risks. At the same time, disruptions to refining and shipping have restricted the supply of finished fuels.

A shortage of refined fuel

Diesel is particularly vulnerable because it is a major component of global oil consumption, accounting for almost 30% of worldwide demand, according to the IEA.

The disruption to Gulf exports has been especially significant. Gulf countries’ net exports of diesel and gasoil averaged only about 390,000 barrels a day in August, just over a quarter of pre-war levels.

Russia has added another layer of pressure. Disruptions to its refining system and a near-halt to product exports following intensified attacks have removed additional diesel from the international market. Combined Gulf and Russian diesel and gasoil exports were 1.6mn barrels a day below February levels, when the two regions accounted for almost 45% of global seaborne diesel trade.

That shortfall matters because replacing diesel barrels is harder than replacing crude. Refineries in other regions are already operating at high utilisation rates, limiting their ability to compensate for lost supplies.

The IEA said global refinery throughputs reached a summer peak of 81.4mn barrels a day in August, but remained 4.2mn barrels a day below the level a year earlier. Refining margins in the Atlantic Basin reached record levels, driven by sharply higher diesel prices.

Shipping has become part of the problem

The disruption is also being amplified by the cost and risk of transporting oil and refined products.

The Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained, while attacks around the Red Sea’s Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint have disrupted established shipping routes. Tanker costs have risen sharply as security risks increase and demand for ships strengthens.

The result is a market in which even available fuel can become considerably more expensive to deliver.

For countries that depend heavily on imported diesel, the consequences extend beyond the forecourt. Diesel powers trucks, buses, agricultural machinery, construction equipment, generators and much of the freight economy. Higher prices can therefore feed into transportation costs and, ultimately, the prices of goods and services.

Why crude prices do not tell the whole story

Brent crude averaged $91 a barrel in August before climbing to $113.48 on Sept. 9, according to the IEA. At the time of the agency’s report, Brent futures were trading around $105 a barrel, about $21 higher than at the beginning of August and 45% above pre-war levels.

But the increase in refined-product prices has been much larger.

That widening gap between crude and diesel prices has pushed refinery margins to record levels in the Atlantic Basin. In effect, the market is paying a premium not merely for oil, but for access to processing capacity and physical supplies of finished diesel.

Africa faces a difficult equation

For African economies that import substantial volumes of refined petroleum products, the diesel squeeze creates a particularly difficult combination of higher international fuel costs, more expensive freight and pressure on domestic consumers and businesses.

The impact will vary between countries depending on local refining capacity, fuel-import dependence, currency movements, taxes and the extent to which governments regulate or subsidise pump prices.

The global supply picture also remains fragile. The IEA estimates that global oil inventories fell by another 95mn barrels in August, bringing cumulative draws since February to 507mn barrels. With inventories falling and refineries operating under pressure, the agency warned that further disruption could tighten the market further.

The agency expects global oil supply to average 100.7mn barrels a day in 2026, down 5.7mn barrels a day from the previous year, with a full recovery in Middle Eastern supplies pushed into 2027.

For diesel consumers, that means the key variable is no longer simply the price of crude. It is whether the world’s refineries, pipelines and shipping routes can restore the flow of finished fuel.

Until that happens, diesel is likely to remain one of the most closely watched pressure points in the global energy market.