The International Monetary Fund has reached a staff-level agreement with Ghana on the first review of its economic reform programme, citing stronger growth, falling inflation and improved public finances, while warning that pressure on foreign exchange reserves and exposure to global commodity markets remain significant risks.
In a statement released on Thursday, November 5, the IMF said its staff had reached an agreement with Ghanaian authorities following discussions in Accra between October 22 and November 4 under the country’s 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI).
The agreement, which remains subject to approval by IMF management and its executive board, marks another step in Ghana’s efforts to consolidate its economic recovery after years of debt distress, inflationary pressures and currency instability.
The IMF said Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.2 per cent year on year during the first half of 2026, supported by investment, with full-year growth projected at 5.7 per cent.
Inflation fell to 5.5 per cent in October, below the Bank of Ghana’s target range of 6 to 10 per cent, indicating a significant improvement in price stability.
“Macroeconomic stability is becoming entrenched,” said Ruben Atoyan, who led the IMF mission to Ghana.
The Fund said the country’s fiscal position remained strong, with the primary budget surplus on course to meet its year-end target, while public debt had declined rapidly in recent years.
These improvements have strengthened Ghana’s ability to absorb external economic shocks, including disruptions associated with the conflict in the Middle East.
Ghana’s recovery gains momentum
The IMF’s assessment suggests that Ghana’s economic stabilisation programme is delivering measurable improvements in growth, inflation and fiscal management.
The country has undergone an extensive economic adjustment process aimed at restoring debt sustainability, strengthening public finances and rebuilding investor confidence.
The latest review indicates that most quantitative targets under the PCI have been achieved, while structural reforms covering taxation, monetary policy, energy pricing and public financial management are progressing.
Unlike conventional IMF lending arrangements, the PCI does not provide direct financing. Instead, it offers a framework for monitoring economic policies and signalling reform credibility to investors, development partners and international financial institutions.
Ghana’s 36-month arrangement was considered by the IMF executive board on July 27, 2026, following the country’s earlier programme supported by the Extended Credit Facility.
The transition to a non-financing arrangement reflects a shift towards maintaining macroeconomic discipline and preserving the gains achieved through previous adjustment measures.
However, the IMF cautioned that economic stability remains vulnerable to external shocks and domestic financial pressures.
Foreign exchange reserves remain a concern
Despite the improvement in economic conditions, Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves have declined in recent months, prompting corrective measures by the authorities.
The IMF said the government had transferred foreign exchange intermediation responsibilities from the Bank of Ghana to GoldBod and introduced higher gold sale requirements for large-scale mining companies.
The measures are intended to improve foreign currency management and support the rebuilding of reserve buffers.
The Fund stressed that effective implementation, alongside greater exchange rate flexibility, would be essential to achieving the programme’s objectives.
Ghana’s dependence on gold, cocoa and oil exports leaves its external accounts exposed to fluctuations in international commodity prices.
While strong gold prices can support export revenues and foreign exchange inflows, sudden market reversals could weaken the balance of payments and put renewed pressure on the currency.
The IMF also identified geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions as potential threats to Ghana’s recovery.
For policymakers, rebuilding reserves will be important to strengthening the country’s ability to manage external shocks without undermining domestic economic stability.
2027 budget targets fiscal surplus and investment
The IMF endorsed the broad direction of Ghana’s proposed 2027 budget, which targets a primary surplus of 0.5 per cent of gross domestic product on a commitment basis.
The target is consistent with the PCI and builds on the fiscal consolidation achieved in recent years.
The government plans to use the fiscal space created by stronger revenues and tighter expenditure management to support its New Economy priorities, including employment creation, investment and infrastructure development.
The IMF said the budget would be supported by revenue measures approved by parliament in July 2026, alongside improvements in tax administration and customs enforcement.
Non-oil revenue is projected to increase further in 2027, helped by reforms to customs and excise legislation, the introduction of electronic fiscal devices and the rollout of the Integrated Tax Administration System.
However, the Fund warned that increased public investment must be accompanied by rigorous project appraisal, competitive procurement and strict expenditure controls.
These safeguards would be necessary to ensure value for money and prevent a renewed accumulation of unsustainable public debt.
The emphasis on investment reflects the challenge facing Ghana’s government as it seeks to translate macroeconomic stability into broader economic opportunities.
Although lower inflation and stronger fiscal balances have improved the economic outlook, creating sufficient employment and addressing infrastructure deficits remain central to sustaining public support for reforms.
Cocoa and energy reforms remain critical
The IMF said Ghana had made progress on structural reforms, including parliamentary approval of a new Cocoa Board Act designed to strengthen governance and financial discipline in the cocoa sector.
The legislation forms part of efforts to address longstanding financial and operational challenges affecting an industry that remains central to Ghana’s agricultural exports and rural employment.
The authorities have also continued quarterly electricity tariff adjustments, reflecting efforts to improve financial sustainability in the energy sector.
Other completed measures include publication of the government’s Fiscal Strategy Document and an early review of customs and excise legislation.
Work is continuing on reforms to the Bank of Ghana’s liquidity management framework, the establishment of an operational Fiscal Council and preparation of a Fiscal Risk Statement.
The IMF nevertheless expressed concern over delays in publishing an audit of the Electricity Company of Ghana’s collection accounts.
It said completing outstanding reforms on schedule would be important to strengthening transparency, financial oversight and confidence in public institutions.
Ghana’s energy sector has long presented fiscal risks because of financial obligations involving electricity generation, distribution and state-owned enterprises.
Weaknesses in revenue collection and expenditure management could undermine the government’s fiscal objectives if left unresolved.
Debt pressures and governance risks persist
Despite the improvement in Ghana’s debt position, the IMF warned that significant domestic debt refinancing requirements remain a potential source of financial vulnerability.
The Fund urged the authorities to continue building a sinking fund to meet maturing debt obligations, maintain prudent monetary policy and strengthen foreign exchange reserves.
It also identified fiscal pressures arising from the energy, cocoa and gold sectors, alongside remaining weaknesses in the financial system.
Governance reforms will be another important test of the government’s commitment to maintaining investor confidence.
The IMF called for the adoption of the Conduct of Public Officers Bill, publication of the second National Ethics and Anti-Corruption Action Plan and stronger oversight of state-owned enterprises.
These measures, it said, would help strengthen public trust and improve conditions for private investment.
The Fund’s assessment highlights the distinction between restoring short-term macroeconomic stability and securing a durable economic transformation.
Ghana’s recovery has been supported by fiscal consolidation, lower inflation and stronger economic activity, but sustaining those gains will require continued policy discipline and reforms that encourage private-sector investment.
The IMF said it remained committed to supporting Ghana’s efforts to preserve stability and achieve more inclusive, employment-intensive growth.
The staff-level agreement will now proceed through the IMF’s internal approval process before being submitted to its executive board.
For Ghana, a successful review would provide further international endorsement of its economic policies, even though the PCI does not involve the disbursement of IMF financing.
The challenge for the government will be maintaining fiscal discipline while ensuring that economic recovery translates into jobs, infrastructure improvements and higher living standards.
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