NEW YORK, Sept. 22, 2026 (XOL Africa) — The global economy is showing signs of stabilization, but tighter fiscal conditions, rising living costs and uncertainty over artificial intelligence investment could weigh on growth over the next year, according to a World Economic Forum survey of chief economists.
The latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, released Tuesday, found that 56% of economists surveyed expect the global economic outlook to remain stable or improve over the next 12 months. That marks a sharp shift from May, when 89% expected conditions to deteriorate.
But the economists remain cautious about the durability of the improvement.
Nearly all respondents, 97%, identified geopolitical conflict as a likely source of uncertainty over the coming year, while 58% expect potential corrections in asset prices. Only about one-quarter believe the global economy will become significantly more resilient.
“Chief Economists expect the global economy to stabilize, but uncertainty remains high with geopolitical volatility, potential asset-price corrections, greater scrutiny of AI investment and persistent cost-of-living pressures,” said Attilio Di Battista, head of economic growth and transformation at the World Economic Forum.
“Government support played a critical role in navigating successive crises, but fiscal capacity is likely to be more constrained going forward,” he said. “The priority now is to strengthen the foundations of resilience before the next shock arrives.”
Fiscal support fades
Fiscal policy has been a major source of economic resilience since 2020, with 69% of respondents identifying government fiscal support as the most significant factor behind the global economy’s ability to withstand successive shocks.
Only 28% expect fiscal support to play the same role over the next year.
Instead, economists expect resilience to increasingly depend on flexible supply chains, technological innovation and adaptation in energy markets. The United States and China are viewed by respondents as among the economies best positioned to withstand future shocks.
AI investment brings both optimism and risks
The survey shows strong expectations for continued artificial intelligence adoption. Ninety-seven percent of respondents expect AI adoption to increase over the next year, while 69% anticipate meaningful productivity gains.
Data centers are expected to become an increasingly important source of economic activity. About 78% of economists believe data-center investment will account for a significant share of global growth.
But the expansion is also expected to face resistance.
Seventy-nine percent anticipate significant opposition from local communities, while 78% expect data-center expansion to put upward pressure on electricity prices and 58% expect higher water prices.
At the same time, 61% of respondents do not expect data-center investment to generate a significant share of global jobs.
The competitive gap between the United States and China in artificial intelligence is also expected to narrow. About 69% of surveyed economists expect Chinese large language models to catch up with U.S. counterparts within the next 12 months.
Trade fragmentation expected to deepen
The economists also expect greater fragmentation of the global economy.
Seventy-seven percent anticipate increased geoeconomic fragmentation over the next year. Fifty-five percent expect tariffs in the United States to rise, while 43% anticipate higher tariffs in Europe.
Despite those pressures, about two-thirds expect global trade volumes to increase. Eighty-three percent also expect Chinese exports to markets outside the United States to grow.
The United States is expected to remain the most favorable business environment for multinational companies, followed by Southeast Asia and Europe. India ranks fourth in the survey, while China remains fifth.
Growth outlook remains uneven
Growth expectations have improved across much of the global economy, although significant regional differences remain.
India, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and the United States received relatively stronger assessments. China’s outlook weakened, with about one-third of respondents expecting weak growth.
Europe showed a modest improvement but remained the weakest-performing region in the survey, with 61% of economists expecting weak or very weak growth.
About one-third of respondents expect unemployment to increase in the United States, China and Europe.
Monetary policy is also expected to diverge. Seventy percent of respondents anticipate tighter monetary policy in Japan, compared with 53% in the euro area and 42% in the United States. Nearly half, or 49%, expect China to move toward looser monetary policy.
Cost-of-living pressures persist
Households are expected to face continued pressure from rising costs, with food, electricity and transport identified as the leading sources of increases.
Eighty-eight percent of economists expect food costs to rise, while 83% anticipate higher electricity prices and 77% expect transport costs to increase.
Most respondents expect real incomes to stagnate or decline across much of the world. Southeast Asia and India are exceptions, with more than 60% of respondents expecting real incomes to increase in those regions.
Governments are expected to favor broad measures to ease the pressure on households. Sixty percent of economists expect tax reductions on essential goods, while 54% anticipate consumption subsidies and 50% expect price controls.
By comparison, only 36% expect tax reductions specifically targeting low-income households and 26% anticipate targeted cash transfers.
The World Economic Forum said the survey was conducted from Aug. 4 to 20, 2026, among chief economists from the public and private sectors.
The findings were released as the forum holds its Sustainable Development Impact Meetings in New York from Sept. 21-24, bringing together business, government and civil society leaders ahead of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in 2027.
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