ABIDJAN, Côte d’Ivoire (XOL Africa) — West Africa’s economy is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2026, following stronger-than-expected growth of 4.8% in 2025, as the region continues to demonstrate resilience despite geopolitical tensions, insecurity, global economic fragmentation and volatile international financial markets.
The projections are contained in the African Development Bank Group’s (AfDB) 2026 West Africa Regional Economic Outlook and the 2026 Côte d’Ivoire Country Focus Report, both launched on 28 July in Abidjan.
According to the reports, West Africa’s 2025 growth rate exceeded the continental average of 4.4%, reflecting continued economic activity across the region. Growth in 2026 is expected to be supported by stronger private investment, recovering domestic demand, infrastructure spending and expansion in the oil, gas and mining sectors.
However, the AfDB warned that the outlook remains vulnerable to prolonged geopolitical tensions, persistent global inflation, rising public debt pressures and tighter international financial conditions.
Côte d’Ivoire remains WAEMU’s largest economy
Côte d’Ivoire remains the largest economy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and is expected to record 6.5% growth in 2025, according to the Country Focus Report.
The report said the Ivorian economy continues to maintain strong momentum but stressed that sustaining growth will require greater domestic resource mobilisation and continued structural reforms.
Trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures and tighter global financing conditions could weigh on investment and economic expansion, it said.
Côte d’Ivoire’s ambition to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2030, the report added, will depend on accelerating structural transformation through industrialisation, private-sector development and the creation of greater fiscal space.
Among the priorities identified are greater formalisation of economic activity, improved property and mining taxation, better taxation of electronic commerce, continued financial-sector reforms and stronger mobilisation of domestic and foreign investment.
“Our ambition is not limited to generating growth. It is about transforming that growth into jobs, stronger human capital, higher productivity, and shared prosperity,” said Loesse J. Esso, Chief of Staff at Côte d’Ivoire’s Ministry of Planning and Development, speaking on behalf of Minister Souleymane Diarrassouba.
He said the findings of the reports reinforce the need to mobilise public and private resources at scale to support implementation of Côte d’Ivoire’s National Development Plan 2026–2030 and accelerate structural transformation.
Region faces $90–100 billion annual financing gap
The AfDB reports estimate that West Africa faces an annual development financing gap of between $90 billion and $100 billion. However, the reports argue that the region’s challenge is not simply a shortage of capital but the fragmentation and underutilisation of resources already available.
The reports call for stronger domestic resource mobilisation, improved public financial management and greater use of local capital for productive, long-term investment.
“West Africa’s challenge is not simply the volume of resources available to finance development. The challenge is how those resources are mobilized and deployed to transformative investments that create jobs, strengthen resilience and improve livelihoods,” said Joseph Ribeiro, AfDB Deputy Director General for West Africa and Country Manager for Côte d’Ivoire.
He said the region has an opportunity to convert fragmented pools of capital into long-term investments capable of accelerating structural transformation.
Marcellin Ndong Ntah, Lead Economist for West Africa, said countries could significantly expand their financing capacity by broadening the tax base, formalising the informal sector, improving public investment efficiency and directing long-term institutional savings towards productive investment.
Low tax revenues constrain development
The Regional Economic Outlook found that West Africa’s average tax-to-GDP ratio stood at 9.9% over the past five years, significantly below the 20% WAEMU convergence benchmark.
The AfDB said the low level of domestic revenue mobilisation limits governments’ ability to finance development priorities and strengthen fiscal resilience.
The report identifies four key areas for action: broadening the tax base, improving the management of natural-resource revenues, formalising informal economic activity, and directing pension and insurance savings towards long-term productive investment.
The reports also call for deeper regional financial integration, including stronger capital markets through institutions such as the West African Regional Stock Exchange (BRVM).
More integrated financial markets, improved payment systems and greater mobilisation of domestic savings, the AfDB said, could help unlock long-term investment and strengthen the region’s capacity to finance its own development.
Overall, the reports conclude that West Africa has significant opportunities to strengthen its financial resilience by mobilising domestic resources, unlocking long-term capital and making more effective use of existing financial resources to support inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
Read the report in English and in French.
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